Raoul Pal: Weakening US Dollar Could Fuel Crypto Surge In Q2

The declining US dollar could trigger a strong crypto market rally in the second quarter of the year, according to Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal. His comments come as Bitcoin has surged 4% over the past 24 hours while the greenback continues to slide.

Pal believes that with the dollar, rates, and oil all heading lower, financial conditions are easing fast and could lead risk assets like tech and crypto markets to rally in Q2. He also mentioned that if these trends persist, there could be a positive carryover into the second half of 2025.

Historically, Bitcoin has performed well in the second quarter, with an average return of 26.89% since 2013. Pal emphasized that among interest rates, oil prices, and the US dollar, the trajectory of the dollar is crucial for the crypto market.

A weaker US Dollar Index typically drives investors towards alternative assets like Bitcoin. Since February 5th, the DXY has fallen by 2.79%, while Bitcoin has surged nearly 6%.

Analysts at Bitfinex warn that Bitcoin may face resistance at $94K following a recent unsuccessful attempt to reclaim that price level. The upcoming Federal Reserve decision on interest rates on March 19th is also expected to impact market sentiment.

Overall, a weaker US dollar could fuel a crypto surge in Q2, but resistance at $94K and upcoming Fed decisions may play a role in shaping market sentiment.